Press ESC to close

UFC 303: Betting picks and analysis | Pereira vs Prochazka 2 – Kanpai Media

Getty Images

Welcome, UFC Fans and Degens. Hovz here with a breakdown of the upcoming fights this weekend. There are a lot of exciting matchups so be sure to tune in to see my favorite bets for Saturday night. We had an amazing last event at UFC 300 cashing in almost $800, can we run it back?


Main Event: Pereira (-150) vs Prochazka (+125)

We have all seen the first fight and we know how it went. Alex chopped at Jiri’s leg and Jiri’s awkwardness did catch Pereira. In the first fight I had Jiri to beat Alex and I was wrong, but this time I won’t be. The pick is Prochazka for this fight and he is going to get it done by KO. There is a lot of hype on Alex at the moment and the odds are reflecting that. If you look back at the first fight, all three judges gave Jiri round 1, I think Alex is a bit too flat footed and Jiri can catch him this time around. I also expect Jiri to adjust to those leg kicks and limit the damage there. I will be excited to see the third fight after Jiri wins by KO. 

Pick: Prochazka (+125)

Co Main: Brian Ortega (+130) vs Lopes (-155)

I have been betting on UFC for years and this might be the hardest handicap of my life. For the life of me I can’t pick a side confidently on this one, but I do have a lean. There is too much hype on Lopes at this moment. I have always backed Lopes especially after that Evloev fight and it has paid off, but its time to put the breaks on the train. Lopes will be champion one day, but oddsmakers are giving him too much respect. Ortega has too much experience and too much fight knowledge to give Lopes an easy fight. I am confident this fight leaves the first round, and if it does the edge goes to Ortega. Take a small bet on Ortega. 

Pick: Ortega (+130)

Anthony Smith (+120) vs Roman Dolidze (-140)

I’m going to make this quick. I am backing Smith in this fight. Not because I think he is still the beast he was when he fought years ago, but more of a fade on Dolidze. I don’t think he has a huge advantage on the feet and he will have trouble taking Smith to the ground. If you gave me these odds on Smith a few years ago I would have put my house on it, but because he is getting old and he is on the latter half of his career, I would keep the bet small. Take Anthony Smith here as I believe he will win by decision in a very close fight. 

Pick: Smith (+120)

Ian Gary (-160) vs Michael Page (+135)

This is a fun fight, but it also the last time you will get this good of a price on Ian Gary. MVP is definitely not all hype and he is the real deal, but I think his style of fighting does not mesh well with Gary. MVP is going to look to counter and catch Gary with his awkwardness, but Gary is a bit too patient for him. I see Gary outboxing MVP and taking this fight.

Pick: Gary (-160)

Cub Swanson (+185) vs Fili (-225)

Neither fighter here is the young fighter they used to be. They are well out of their prime and I assume their chances at a championship is very slim. Yes, you can say Fili is the younger fighter, but he has a bunch of time in the Octagon and he is coming off a brutal knockout loss. Usually, I don’t like chasing into a big win like Swanson had in his last fight but this is a good spot for him. Fili just got knocked out by Dan Ige who is a very good boxer especially in the pocket, and that is exactly what Cub Swanson is going to bring to this fight. Cub knows how to close the distance and outbox his opponents. Even at this age, I think he still has the knockout power to put Fili’s lights out. Take Swanson at these odds. 

Pick: Swanson (+185)

Rest of the prelims:

Michelle Waterson-Gomez (+145)

Andrei Arlovski (+225)

Ricky Simon (-250)

FINAL PICKS

    • Prochazka (+125)
    • Ortega (+125)
    • Smith (+120)
    • Garry (-160)
    • Swanson (+185)
    • Gomez (+145)
    • Arlovski (+225)
    • Simon (-250)

Every week I will give myself a $500 budget on bets and will divide accordingly. Please gamble with what you can afford to lose and change your unit sizes in accordance with your own budget..

Last article we had a really good week and cashed out big. We went 6-4 on our picks. Total for the night +$789.11

YTD: +$2168.17 (23-11)

BET ($500 budget) Amount Payout
Prochazka (+125)                                         $75 $93.75
Ortega (+125) $50 $62.5
Smith (+120)       $40 $48  
Gary (-160)                                                          $90 $56.25   
Swanson (+185) $50 $92.5
Gomez (+145) $30 $43.5
Arlovski (+225)       $30 $90
Parlay: Simon (-250) + Gary (-160)   $100 $127.5  
Parlay: Prochazka + Swanson + Arlovski $10 $198.41
Parlay: Ortega + Gary + Swanson + Gomez $25 $599.06

Remember, while these picks are based on thorough research and analysis, MMA is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly and never more than you can afford to lose. Enjoy the fights, and lets do some damage!

Hovz

I have trained in Mix Martial Arts for about 15 years now (started as a kid) and have had boxing/kickboxing fights. I had to stop fighting due to numerous injuries so I have moved my talents towards the analysis side of things. I am now a UFC betting expert and will send picks on every single UFC card.