Kanpai Media Bet. By Super Fan
UFC 294 has had several fights fall apart, but has somehow made the card even better. Islam Makachev, Khamzat Chimaev, and Ikram Aliskerov are all dealing with opponent changes. While their new matchups are exciting for fans and headlines, it has definitely given bettors new challenges to consider. The moneyline on all three of the forementioned fights is almost unplayable if you back the favorites. However I did find a prop that is hotter than Conor McGregor’s last USADA sample.
The matchup is between Khamzat Chimaev and Kamaru Usman. The 178.5 pound welterweight, Khamzat is making his return to the middleweight division for the first time since sparking out Gerald Meerschaert in under 20 seconds. Needless to say Khamzat is more than comfortable fighting at this weight class and will likely enter the cage as the much heavier man on fight night. This is just one of many advantages Chimaev will bring into the octagon. He is younger, bigger, stronger, faster, and most importantly of all he does not have the knees of a World War 2 veteran. Another reason to be high on the Swedish sensation is his unmatched durability.
Many fans will point to the sloppy banger of a brawl that Khamzat had with Gilbert Burns as a negative for Khamzat, but I think this performance really showed how great Khamzat is. He fought Gilbert with seemingly zero gameplan, entering the cage like a bat out of hell and getting into car crash exchanges. Khamzat was on the wrong side of the those exchanges several times, eating haymakers and gassing himself out in the process. And he still survived and won the third round. My biggest takeaway from this performance is vital to consider for this next fight; Khamzat is capable of fighting with Homer Simpson IQ and still win. If it was not undeniable before, it is now. Chimaev’s freak of nature talents alone are enough to get him through even elite fighters. If Khamzat had kept composed and stuck to a gameplan, I believe he would have finished Burns. And that is what I believe he will do against Kamaru Usman.
While I do not believe that Usman is washed, I do believe he is on the decline. Mix that in with the fact that he is taking this fight on 12 days notice against the scariest prospect that we have ever seen and I think the play here is clear. In his past 3 fights, Usman has been wobbled by Leon Edwards and Colby Covington who are the posterboys for pillowfists. Khamzat has bricks for hands, and is somehow even more dangerous on the ground. Although the most likely path to victory is going to be on the feet due to Usman having near perfect takedown defense, I can see a world where Khamzat is able to drop Usman and lock in a submission to burn the knockout bettors.
In summary, Khamzat is dangerous Usman is fragile. At 36 years old, I just do not think Usman’s durability is going to stand the test of “Borz.” There are a lot of ways Khamzat can get it done, but one thing I am confident in is that he gets it done before the final bell. Khamzat to win by finish is currently sitting at -125 and realistically it should be at -200, and I just cannot pass this up.
OFFICIAL PLAY: 1u – Khamzat to win by finish (-125)
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