Press ESC to close

UFC 295: Prochazka vs Pereira bets with The Octagon Oracle

Photo Credit: UFC

After a decent clean 3-0 sweep from last week, we see one large spot in particular….

The UFC heads to New York this weekend but somewhat ill-fated after the headlining super star Jon Jones had to pull out with an injury. One could argue the replacement fight is a more worthy matchup but that’s neither here nor there. It’s a solid card with multiple fights with value in my opinion and a few more that I’m still mulling over. Let’s get it.

John Castanada -145 vs Kyung Ho Kang +120

Both are solid well rounded enough fighters but i can’t help but think Kang has been generally disrespected by the oddsmakers in most of his fights and I am inclined to think the same here. Kang is a slick grappler but beyond this i don’t see either fighter having a real edge. Therefore, kang +120 is slightly mispriced. I believe it should be an even lined fight.

The pick: Kang 1u +120

Jared Gordon -190 Vs Mark Madsen +165

I bet on Gordon -170 and I still think it’s fine at -190. Madsen is an Olympic wrestler, but this is not a good matchup in my view. Gordon is the superior striker here and generally doesn’t allow himself to be taken down or controlled easily and is good to hit a few reversals a fight when he is taken down. And this is what is necessary to beat Madsen, to not allow easy take downs and easy lay and pray top time to eat the clock. Madsen also is 39 years of age so it’s more likely than not physical declines will be seen now.

The Pick: Jared “flash” Gordon -190 3u

Loopy Godinez -170 vs Tabatha Ricci +140

Strange line movement with early action favoring Ricci which was a welcome surprise to me. Large bet for me at -140 and the line is still generous at -170. I do not see a path to victory for Ricci here unless Loopy makes multiple critical bonehead moves. Ricci generally needs to get takedowns and top control to win decisions, however she is dealing with a competent wrestler for the first time in the UFC who won’t welcome being put on the mat. Loopy is also easily the more skilled boxer who can actually land damaging shots. I personally cap this fight at Loopy -300. Loopy should only lose this fight via a bad split decision based off lazy judges getting influenced by cardio optics in my view. Ricci has good cardio and Loopy’s cardio does leave something to be desired. Regardless, I struggle to see how Ricci scores points here.

The Pick: Max bet 5 units Loopy Godinez -170

The Octagon Oracle

I bet on human cockfighting so i dont have to leave my house.