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UFC Fight Night Hermansson vs. Pyfer Free Picks, Predictions, and Analysis

Max Griffin (+170) vs. Jeremiah Wells (-205)

A pair of veteran welterweights get us started on Saturday, as Max Griffin takes on Jeremiah Wells. We last saw Wells in August, suffering his first defeat in the UFC via third-round submission at the hands of Carlston Harris. A jiu-jitsu specialist, Wells has proven to be a well-rounded fighter with two submissions and two TKOs over his past five fights. 

He runs into another well-rounded guy in this matchup in Griffin, who despite losing his last two fights, did so against two guys who are a calibur Wells has yet to face. A split decision loss to Neil Magny in March of 2022 was followed up by a win vs. Tim Means and another decision loss to Michael Morales in July of last year. 

With 15 fights in the UFC, 3x that of Wells, Griffin is the more proven fighter, and after a closer look at the metrics I believe the better fighter. With 2x the significant strikes landed per minute, he doesn’t trail behind in his ground game as many would expect. If he can lean on his 70% takedown defense, I think he outstrikes Wells and racks up points early and often. Add in the better gas tank, and I have this fight much closer to a coin flip than the odds suggest. 

Pick: Max Griffin (+170 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

Dan Ige (-105) vs. Andre Fili (-115)

Dan “50K” Ige steps back into the octagon Saturday, looking to bounce back from a September loss to Bryce Mitchell. Prior to that defeat, he had won his two prior fights in decisive fashion, knocking out Damon Jackson in April before a dominant decision win over Nate Landwehr in June. 

His opponent, Andre Fili, comes into this one following his biggest win to date, a December win over Lucas Almeida in the very first round. In just his second win in his prior six fights, Fili lost to Mitchell back in 2020 before losing two more bad fights against Joanderson Brito and Nathaniel Wood. 

In addition to being the more tested fighter, Ige has edges across the board including knockdown average, significant striking accuracy, and submission average per 15 minutes. Opening as high as -150, my numbers are more in line with the bookmakers than where this number has landed, and I’ll gladly take the -105.

Pick: Dan Ige (-105 at BetMGM Sportsbook)

Jack Hermansson (+180) vs. Joe Pyfer (-220)

The main event on Saturday night has the chance, on paper, to be an absolute banger of a fight. Jack Hermannson makes his long-awaited return to the octagon, 400+ days from his last bout, a second-round TKO to Roman Dolidze. The loss was his third in five fights, albeit against killers in Sean Strickland and Marvin Vettori. 

Unfortunately for “The Joker”, he runs into another killer in Joe Pyfer for this one, who with a win will surely crack the top 15 rankings for the first time in his career. Joining the UFC via DWCS in 2020 with a loss to Dustin Stolzfus (via injury), just the second of his career, Pyfer has been on a tear in the time since. His fifth straight win came in October, a second-round submission over Abdul Razak Alhassan, his 11th win in 12 professional wins. 

With edges across the board, including big ones in submission average (3x) and takedown average (3x), I like for Pyfer to get this one done early as well. 

Pick: Joe Pyfer – Inside the Distance (-180 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Johnny Covers

Johnny has been covering the sports betting markets and handicapping UFC for the better part of the past decade. Along the way, he has written for publications such as Oddschecker, Betting Pros, Sportsbook Review, Yardbarker, and many more. Johnny runs giving out free UFC analysis and picks on every card, going 56% in 2021, 65% in 2022, and trending at 60% for 2023. He has also made multiple appearances on UFC's official betting show "On the Line" along side head MMA oddsmaker at Circa Sportsbooks Nick Kalikas and professional sports bettor Gianni the Greek .