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UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan Predictions and Analysis

Veronica Hardy (+115) vs. Jamey Lyn-Horth (-140)

We’re jumping straight into this one with the first of the night just after 4 pm EST on ESPN+. These two opened up at -110 each, before seeing Lyn-Horth take money, surely from sharp groups that are seeing the same things I am.

Lyn-Horth is still relatively new to the sport and has taken virtually no damage despite being 34, winning all six of her pro fights; five of which have come inside the distance. In her April UFC debut vs. Haley Cowan, Lyn-Horth put on a striking clinic, landing 5.07 significant strikes per minute at an accuracy of 73%.

Despite being six years younger, Hardy joined the UFC back in 2016, having gone 2-4 in the time since against arguably the worst division in the company. She does have experience in the UFC on the ground, but Lyn-Horth’s ground game has produced two finishes in just five fights. 

With my numbers making Lyn-Horth well over -200, I think there’s a ton of value at this number.

Pick: Jamey Lyn-Horth (-140 at BetMGM Sportsbook)

Rob Font (-150) vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (+125)

It’s been three years since Figueiredo has stepped into an octagon to face someone not named Brandon Moreno, going 1-2-1 over a four-fight saga. With Moreno winning that rivalry (by a razor-thin margin), many have forgotten Figueiredo came into it having won five straight fights and nine of 10 since joining the UFC.

On the otherside of this matchup, Rob Font comes in having lost three of his past four, all via decision, with his win coming in decisive (R1 TKO) fashion vs. Adrian Yanez in April. As was the case in those losses, my criticism of Font over the years is he plays with his food, attempting to rack up points vs. taking risks on finishes. 

With 81% of his wins coming inside the distance, Figueiredo has no such problem, and I think is eager to remind the sport just who he is still. With edges across the board, notably in submission average (4x) and knockdown average (2x), I think Figgy has more paths to victory and should be favored in this one. 

Pick: Deiveson Figueiredo (+125 at BetMGM Sportsbook)

Beneil Dariush (+230) vs. Arman Tsarukyan (-245)

The lightweight division will take a step forward in Saturday’s main event, as Dariush (#4) or Tsarukyan (#8) will inch one fight closer to a title shot. Despite his storming up the lightweight ranks, Tsarukyan has struggled to finish the upper echelon of the division, going the distance with Islam Makhachev (L), Matt Frevola (W), Mateusz Gamrot (L), and Damir Ismagulov (W); which is what I expect in this one. 

At 34 years old, Dariush’s margin for error in terms of a title shot is thin, and a loss here likely sets him back to a point where it’s not realistic. As such, I expect him to take a conservative approach, and lean on his 80% takedown defense to stifle Tsarukyan’s 3.43 takedown average per 15 minutes. 

While Dariush has the slight edge in striking, Tsarukyan should be able to stay clean on exchanges, as he takes just 1.91 significant strikes per minute. Tsarukyan also has the propensity to take fights long, averaging 2.72 rounds per fight. 

For me, all signs point to this one going long. 

Pick: Over 3.5 Rounds (-140 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Get the rest of my UFC selections, including a pick on every fight on Saturday’s card via my UFC Prediction newsletter on Substack.

Johnny Covers

Johnny has been covering the sports betting markets and handicapping UFC for the better part of the past decade. Along the way, he has written for publications such as Oddschecker, Betting Pros, Sportsbook Review, Yardbarker, and many more. Johnny runs giving out free UFC analysis and picks on every card, going 56% in 2021, 65% in 2022, and trending at 60% for 2023. He has also made multiple appearances on UFC's official betting show "On the Line" along side head MMA oddsmaker at Circa Sportsbooks Nick Kalikas and professional sports bettor Gianni the Greek .