Ricard Ramos (-160) vs. Julian Erosa (+135)
We’re starting this Fight Night card off with a pair of featherweights, both of which are looking to get back in the win column following their last fight. Erosa comes into this one reeling, having dropped two straight fights in the very first round via KO/TKO to Alex Caceres and Fernando Padilla.
Despite being just 28 years old, Ramos is wise beyond his years having first joined the UFC more than seven years ago. Since then, he has gone 7-4, picking up big wins along the way versus Kyung Ho Kang, Bill Algeo, and most recently, Danny Chavez.
A recent loss to the streaking Charles Jourdain I think is giving us Ramos at a bit of a discount here, as he leads the way in this matchup nearly across the board including knockdowns (2x), takedowns (2x), and takedown accuracy. I have this number above -200 and will gladly take the value here.
Pick: Ricard Ramos (-160 at Caesars Sportsbook)
Edmen Shahbazyan (-190) vs. AJ Dobson (+160)
This another fight I think is mispriced, and one I think could end well before the final bell.
Coming into Saturday, Shahbazyan has now lost four of his past five fights with the UFC, and is trending dangerously close to being cut from the promotion. A closer look shows most of those losses have been at the hands (and elbows) of some of the division’s best in Derek Brunson, Nassourdine Imavov, and most recently Anthony Hernandez.
As for Dobson, in his three fights with the UFC, he went just 1-2, picking up his first win under the banner against Tafon Nchukwi in August. Outside of takedown defense, however, Dobson trails Shabazyan in most metrics, including knockdowns (3x), takedowns, and submissions (2x).
With a 91% finish rate over his professional wins, look for Shahbazyan to respond with his back against the wall in this spot.
Pick: Edmen Shahbazyan – Inside the Distance (-125 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Amanda Ribas (+185) vs. Rose Namajunas (-225)
Simply put, I think the wrong fighter is favored in Saturday night’s main event of the evening.
At one point considered one of the best flyweights to ever put on the gloves, “Thug” Namajunas comes into Saturday on a two fight losing streak, with a first round pro grappling loss sandwiched in the middle. As for Ribas, who has come in having won two of her past three fights, she most recently TKO’d Luana Pinheiro in November, making her way to the top 10 (#8) rankings in the process.
Looking at the metrics, Ribas sweeps the board, with a higher significant strikes landed per minute clip (+34%), submissions (+45%), and takedowns (+34%). With more paths to victory and momentum on her side, I think Ribas gets this one done.
Pick: Amanda Ribas (+185 at BetMGM Sportsbook)
