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UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill Betting Preview & Picks | Johnny Covers

Sodiq Yusuff (+120) vs. Diego Lopes (-140)

Relative UFC newcomer Diego Lopes will face his toughest test to date in this one, as the DWCS alum comes in with a record of 2-1 with the promotions. His last two results are likely why he’s getting this shot, getting first-round wins over Gavin Tucker and Pat Sabatini in the second half of 2023. 

As for Yusuff, the Maryland native was on the rise himself before losing to Edson Barboza in October, a three-round war that ended in a decision loss. In this matchup, however, Yusuff doesn’t just have a large experience edge (6-2 in the UFC), but on the ground and feet as well. Notably, Yusuff comes in with edges in significant striking volume (132%), striking defense (46%), and takedown defense (48%).

Pick: Sodiq Yusuff (+120 at BetMGM Sportsbook)

Aljamain Sterling (-108) vs. Calvin Kattar (-112)

This fight speaks to just high the level of quality this UFC 300 card is, as this could easily be a main event on another card and is yet on the prelims. For Kattar, the #8 featherweight will go down a weight class to take on Sterling in this one, looking to stop the worst skid of his career. In his past four fights, Kattar has lost three, coming into this one with consecutive losses to Arnold Allen and Josh Emmett. 

As for Sterling, we last saw him this summer losing his bantamweight strap to Sean O’Malley, breaking a nine-fight win streak that saw him run through the division. One of the best grapplers in the sport, Sterling has major advantages in submissions (8x) and takedowns (4x), and I think we see him get this one to the ground early and keep it there, picking up a win in the process. 

Pick: Aljamain Sterling (-108 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

Alex Pereria (-155) vs. Jamahal Hill (+130)

The light heavyweight belt will be on the line Saturday night in Las Vegas, as Alex Pereira takes on Jamahal Hill in the main event of the evening. We last saw Hill more than a year ago, winning the then-vacant UFC Light Heavyweight strap with a unanimous decision win over Glover Teixeira. In the build-up to his first defense, Hill ruptured his Achilles playing basketball in February 2023, and Saturday will mark his first time back in an octagon since. 

As for Pereira, the former middleweight champion made his light heavyweight debut in July of 2023, beating Jan Błachowicz via split decision. Six months later, the vacant belt became his, beating Jiří Procházka via second-round TKO at UFC 295 at Madison Square Garden. 

While many expect this to be a strike-fest, Pereria has shown improvements in his ground game over his past few fights and has a clear advantage there in this one. I also think this is a mighty task to come back from any time, let alone following a major surgery such as the one Hill has had. 

Pick: Alex Pereria (-155 at Caesars Sportsbook)

Johnny Covers

Johnny has been covering the sports betting markets and handicapping UFC for the better part of the past decade. Along the way, he has written for publications such as Oddschecker, Betting Pros, Sportsbook Review, Yardbarker, and many more. Johnny runs giving out free UFC analysis and picks on every card, going 56% in 2021, 65% in 2022, and trending at 60% for 2023. He has also made multiple appearances on UFC's official betting show "On the Line" along side head MMA oddsmaker at Circa Sportsbooks Nick Kalikas and professional sports bettor Gianni the Greek .