Trevor Peek (+190) vs. Charlie Campbell (-230)
Joining the UFC via Dana White’s Contender Series in 2022 via second-round TKO over Malik Lewis, Trevor Peek followed up with a first-round win over Erick Gonzalez a few months later in his first official bout under the banner. Humbled a few months later by Chepe Mariscal, he responded strongly with a decision win over Mohammad Yahya in October.
Charlie “The Cannibal” Campbell, also a DWCS alum, lost his DWCS debut to Chris Duncan in that same 2022 series, but stepped in to take on Alex Reyes in September for his first UFC fight; a first-round win.
While things are relatively even on the feet, Peek is a big advantage against Campbell in this matchup on the ground. Add in the more experienced opponent history, and I have this fight much closer to even than the current odds suggest.
Pick: Trevor Peek (+190 at Caesars Sportsbook)
Alexander Hernandez (-192) vs. Damon Jackson (+160)
The co-main of Saturday’s UFC Fight Night is a featherweight matchup between two slumping guys Alexander Hernandez and Damon Jackson. Hernandez, who joined the UFC in 2018 to some early success, has struggled as of late, losing three of his past four, two of which came inside the distance.
For Jackson, he’ll be looking to stop a two-fight slide of his own, losing to Billy Quarantillo and Dan Ige in 2023. It’s worth noting that Hernandez also lost to Billy Q last year, with his being a second-round TKO and Jackson going the distance before a decision loss.
Matching either in striking, my pick here focuses on Jackson’s ground game, where he has 2x the takedowns and nearly 15x the submissions.
Pick: Damon Jackson (+160 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Brendan Allen (-192) vs. Chris Curtis (+175)
A pair of top 15 middleweights will battle it out in the main event on Saturday, as Brenan Allen takes on Chris Curtis for the second time in their careers. Their first bout came back in 2021 when Curtis had one and Allen had just two fights in the UFC, which Curtis won via second-round TKO.
Allen has not lost since, going a perfect 6-0 since that fight, five of which came inside the distance, cracking the top 10 in the process. As for Curtis, the “Action Man” has had a mixed bag of results over that same span, going 3-2 with a no-contest in June against Nassourdine Imavov.
Not all records are made the same, however, as Curtis’ losses have come against certified contenders in Jack Hermansson and Kelvin Gastelum, both via decision. In this matchup, I have Curtis as the slight favorite, and won’t be passing up the chance to grab this number.
Pick: Chris Curtis (+175 at BetMGM Sportsbook)
