Moneyline Parlay:
Eryk Anders (-425) vs. Jamie Pickett (+330)
We’re starting off jumping straight to the main card for this one for a middleweight clash between two veterans in the game. In the red corner, Eryk Anders steps into the octagon having lost four of his past five, most recently losing a decision to Marc-Andre Barriault in June.
His opponent, Jamie Pickett, comes in having lost four straight, three of which came inside the distance, most recently losing to Josh Fremd back in August. His loss against Kyle Daukaus back in February of 2022 is what jumps out to me, being dominated out of the gates on the mat before being submitted at the end of the very first round.
While it was in Fury Pro Grappling, Anders beat Daukaus back in December, and while a striker by nature, should have the upper hand here on the ground. If it does stay on the feet, Anders has a 3x advantage in knockdowns and a 25% advantage in significant striking volume.
Raul Rosas Jr. (-245) vs. Ricky Turcios (+200)
We covered this fight in depth last week, and the handicap is mostly the same.
Just minutes before last week’s scheduled bout, Rosa Jr. had to withdraw due to an illness that his camp thought was too much of a risk to get into the octagon. He should return this week, and now the up-and-coming 19-year-old star has an extra chip on his shoulder to get this one done early.
Pick: Anders/Rosas Jr. (-137 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Vitor Petrino (-300) vs. Tyson Pedro (+245)
The co-main event on Saturday night features a pair of unranked light heavyweights, one of whom (Petrino) comes in undefeated with three straight wins in the UFC. Joining the UFC via the DWCS in 2022, Petrino has run through some middle-tier guys and a statement win here likely gets him a ranked opponent next.
I don’t think Pedro is as easy an out as these odds suggest, however, most recently beat a guy in Anton Turkalj in the first round who Petrino could not put away. Outside of a decision loss to Modestas Bukauskas in February of last year, Pedro has not lost since a 2018 fight vs. Mauricio Rua.
While Petrino does have the edge in ground metrics, he has just once won via submission since turning professional, and I expect this one to stay upright. That could spell trouble for Petrino, who loses the striking battle across the board including knockdown average (70%), significant striking volume, striking accuracy, and striking defense.
I have this one much closer to even, and love the value Pedro provides.
Pick: Tyson Pedro (+245 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik (+125) vs. Shamil Gaziev (-150)
With just one fight in the UFC, I don’t think the markets have caught up to just how good Shamil Gaziev truly is. In his 12 professional fights, only one has gone the distance, and he comes in with four straight wins inside two rounds.
As for “Bigi Boy” Rozenstruik, the 36-year-old comes in having lost three of his past four, two of which came in the very first round. With zero ground game to speak of, Rozenstruik purely relies on his striking, and his absorption of 3.15 significant strikes per minute will be a problem here against a killer in Gaziev.
My numbers have Gaziev closer to a -350 favorite, so I’ll gladly take him at this price.
Pick: Shamil Gaziev (-150 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
