After another good week we continue to roll forward with a few interesting matchups, however nothing big is in store here this weekend….
Ailin Perez vs Lucie Pudalova
First up we have a decent stylistic match between Ailin Perez vs Lucie Pudalova. Pudalova from tape hasn’t demonstrated that she can deal with getting taken down and getting up in a timely manner which looks like a fairly glaring issue vs Perez, Perez isn’t exactly the most trustworthy fighter so far in her UFC run and I am concerned about putting too much weight on her last fight given the quality of opponent but Perez is worth a stab here at around -180 to -200.
The pick: Ailin perez -190 1u
I do not have any other official plays given most lines seem accurate off of tape but I will give out a few leans that have my eye as of now.
Luana Pinheiro vs Amanda Ribas
Ribas has a judge-friendly style; she tends to push pace and pressure, doesn’t tire out, spams volume, does well at getting fights to the ground where she can get top position to rack up points and/or get a submission. The problem is that Amanda is very chinny. The opponent here, Luana Pinheiro, is the opposite. Luana tends to have big moments with take downs from her judo background, and hurts opponents with big punches, but does not have a decision/ round winning friendly style. I believe that stylistically Luana has a decent chance to get a knockout (+500) or to win (+200) here. Slight value, unsure if ill end up tossing a small bet on it.
Chase Hooper vs Jordan Leavitt
Both fighters are quite similar. They desperately want to avoid standing, want to immediately turn every fight into a grappling match, and neither has a great wrestling ability to get fights to the floor. Leavitt has a better wrestling ability, but his cardio problem doesn’t allow for multiple wasted shots or prolonged scrambling. Hooper has next to no wrestling but has solid enough cardio provided his face isn’t getting bashed in. With this being said I think Hooper is a decent live bet option if Leavitt wins the 1st round but is forced to work hard and the live odds are around even. Alternatively, since neither are strikers, and both are quite competent on the ground, I think betting on fight goes to decision (-120) might make more sense than betting on money line here. Also, with that in mind, Hooper at +170 decision and Leavitt at +420 decision isn’t going to draw an argument from me.
Happy hunting degenerates.
