Tabatha Ricci (+140) vs. Lupita Godinez (-170)
A women’s strawweight bout will get our betting action started at UFC 295, as “Baby Shark” Ricci makes her return to the octagon to face Lupita “Loopy” Godinez. Coming in on a four-fight win streak, we last saw Ricci in June in a three-round decision win over Gillian Robertson in one of her most complete performances to date.
With a three-straight win streak of her own over Cynthia Calvillo, Emily Ducote, and Elise Reed, Godinez comes in off her first finish in the UFC over Reed in September. Having taken little to no damage, she jumps straight back into this one and I love the matchup for Loopy.
Both in the UFC since 2021, and neither with much in the way of finishing pedigree, I’m putting extra emphasis on the stats in this one. In the striking department, Loopy has the edge in significant striking accuracy (+35%), striking defense, and absorbing 26% fewer shots. The edges continue on the ground, with a 4x submission average and a 25% takedown defense.
As a bonus, Loopy also fought here at MSG last year and will have a comfort level on the biggest stage in combat sports that Ricci will certainly not having fought just twice outside of the UFC Apex. In what is a boring fight, I like for Loopy to rack up the points needed to edge out a decision in a rather decisive fashion.
- Pick: Lupita Godinez (-170 at BetMGM Sportsbook)
Diego Lopes (+100) vs. Pat Sabatini (-120)
The main card gets started with I think one of the more overlooked fights on this card, as Pat Sabatini takes on UFC newcomer Diego Lopes. Joining the UFC this spring, Lopes lost his first fight vs. Movsar Evloev in May before picking up his first win in August vs. Gavin Tucker. He now faces his biggest test to date, by a wider margin than the market thinks.
Pat Sabatini has quietly racked up a 5-1 record in the UFC since joining in 2021, picking up inside distance wins over Jamall Emmers and Lucas Almeida along the way, both via submission. His 3.83 takedowns per 15 minutes are amongst the highest clips in the featherweight division, and he now faces a guy in Lopes who despite being a grappler has zero in the UFC.
If this fight were to remain on the feet, Sabatini has the edge there as well, with a 9% higher striking accuracy and absorbing 25% of the shots of Lopes. His striking defense is also 42% higher, and I think we see these two exchanges before going to the mat.
With more paths to victory and having passed much better tests in his 23 professional fights, I like Sabatini to get this one done.
- Pick: Pat Sabatini (-120 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Diego Lopes (+100) vs. Pat Sabatini (-120)
The main card gets started with I think one of the more overlooked fights on this card, as Pat Sabatini takes on UFC newcomer Diego Lopes. Joining the UFC this spring, Lopes lost his first fight vs. Movsar Evloev in May before picking up his first win in August vs. Gavin Tucker. He now faces his biggest test to date, by a wider margin than the market thinks.
Pat Sabatini has quietly racked up a 5-1 record in the UFC since joining in 2021, picking up inside distance wins over Jamall Emmers and Lucas Almeida along the way, both via submission. His 3.83 takedowns per 15 minutes are amongst the highest clips in the featherweight division, and he now faces a guy in Lopes who despite being a grappler has zero in the UFC.
If this fight were to remain on the feet, Sabatini has the edge there as well, with a 9% higher striking accuracy and absorbing 25% of the shots of Lopes. His striking defense is also 42% higher, and I think we see these two exchanges before going to the mat.
With more paths to victory and having passed much better tests in his 23 professional fights, I like Sabatini to get this one done.
- Pick: Pat Sabatini (-120 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Sergei Pavlovich (+100) vs. Tom Aspinall (-120)
With the under 1.5 rounds shaded up to -250, oddsmakers are expecting fireworks right out of the gates in this one. And it’s hard to disagree with that assessment as two goliaths Sergei Pavlovich and Tom Aspinall step into the octagon to decide the interim heavyweight champion.
Aspinall will make his second ring walk since blowing out his knee in July 2022, getting back in the win column four months ago in a first-round finish over Marcin Tybura. The win continued a trend for the Englishman, being his sixth win in the UFC, all of which have come inside two rounds.
He draws a different kind of beast this Saturday, though, as Sergei Pavlovich has a streak of his own on the line. Since joining the UFC via a loss to Alistair Overeem in 2019, Pavlovich has racked up six straight wins, all of which have come via KO/TKO in the very first round.
While Aspinall does have the edge on the ground, it will be difficult to get Pavlovich there, as he comes in with a takedown defense of 75%. On the feet, Pavlovich averages a staggering 6.31 knockdowns per minute (3x of Aspinall), and 8.72 significant strikes landed per minute (vs. 7.6). Those metrics come against stiffer competition than Aspinall as well, with victories over Derrick Lewis, Tai Tuivasa, and Curtis Blaydes.
As the #2 contender, I like for Pavlovich to become the interim champion on Saturday at MSG within two rounds.
- Pick: Sergei Pavlovich (+100 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
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