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UFC 295 Best Bets: Betting picks and analysis | Prochazka vs Pereira – Kanpai Media

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Welcome, UFC Fans and Degens. Hovz here with a breakdown of the upcoming fights this weekend at Madison Square Garden. There are a lot of exciting matchups so be sure to tune in to see my favorite bets for Saturday night. (Make sure to scroll down for my unofficial Degen parlay)

Main Event: Jiri Prochazka (+105) vs Alex Pereira (-125)

This fight has the potential to become an instant classic, featuring two of the most scariest fighters in the division. Realistically, the outcome of this match could swing in either direction. Alex has the striking that could enable him to claim his second championship, particularly given Jiri’s vulnerability in terms of defense, as he has been known to get tagged on occasion (he even got wobbled by Glover).

However, the stylistic matchup doesn’t favor Alex. He tends to be somewhat flat-footed in his movement and faces a disadvantage in the grappling aspect. Jiri’s unorthodox  movement and striking could prove to be Alex’s Achilles’ heel. Jiri is capable of winning this fight both in a stand-up battle and by transitioning to a grappling-heavy approach.

While Alex may be the more ‘technically’ proficient striker, this isn’t a scenario where I’d put my money on him. My confident pick is Jiri.

Pick: Jiri Procazka (+105)

Co-Main Event: Sergei Pavlovich (+100) vs Tom Aspinall (-120) 

This fight is going to be a banger. Sergei Pavlovich, known for his relentless fighting style, up against the technically skilled heavyweight, Tom Aspinall. Tom stands out with some of the best movement in the heavyweight division, possessing a smooth striking arsenal and a solid ground game. On the other hand, Sergei packs incredible power in his hands and applies relentless pressure to his opponents like a bull dozer.

For Tom to secure a victory, he must evade Sergei’s early onslaught and aim to secure a takedown in each round. However, Saturday night won’t be a cakewalk for Tom. We witnessed Sergei dismantle Curtis Blaydes, a wrestler arguably better than Tom, and Pavlovich has a history of knocking out his UFC opponents. Expect Pavlovich to fend off any takedown attempts by Tom and rely on his power to secure a hard-fought victory. My pick is Sergei Pavlovich.

Pick: Sergei Pavlovich  (+100)

Matt Frevola (+195) vs Benoit Saint-Denis (-238)

Let me kick things off by giving props to Frevola – the guy’s an absolute beast. He never backs down, packs a mean punch, and always delivers thrilling performances. However, this fight is a real tough one for him. Saint-Denis is bigger, taller, and just plain stronger than Frevola.

Saint-Denis might not have the slickest striking, but he’s still has knockout power tied with his great grappling skills. His size advantage should help him score takedowns and control the fight to his liking.

It hurts to go against Frevola, but right now, I’m riding the Saint-Denis train.

Pick: Benoit Saint-Denis (-238)

Diego Lopes (+100) vs Pat Sabatini (-120)

The UFC did an amazing job with this matchup. Lopes has great boxing and can pack a punch. He is coming off his first victory in the UFC with a first-round submission against Gavin Tucker, and before that, he had a Fight of the Night performance in which he almost upset Movsar Evleov. It goes without saying that Lopes is building some momentum. However, that momentum stops with this fight. Lopes has the advantage on the feet and can even submit opponents from his back, but he struggles with his takedown defense. I expect Pat Sabatini to apply relentless pressure on Lopes and go for takedowns at every opportunity in this fight. Lopes might get too comfortable on his back and attempt a few failed submission moves. Sabatini has not been submitted in the UFC, and I don’t think it’s going to start now. Sabatini should control this fight over three rounds and begin a little win streak for himself.

Pick: Pat Sabatini (-120)

Steve Erceg (-190) vs Alessandro Costa (+160)

Steve Erceg has a bunch of hype coming out of Australia. He looked great in his debut with crisp striking, solid grappling, and good cardio. However, he showed that leg kicks can be his weakness and I can guarantee Costa will exploit it. This is a close matchup with Erceg having the range and speed, but Costa has the power, the leg kicks, and the ground game to beat Erceg. Costa landed 16 leg kicks against Flick before finishing him with ground and pound. I expect Costa to win this close fight with leg kicks and grappling.  

Pick: Alessandro Costa (+160)


    • Prochazka (+105)

    • Pavlovich (+100)

    • Saint-Denis (-238)

    • Sabatini (-120)

    • Costa (+160)

Every week I will give myself a $500 budget on bets and will divide accordingly. Please gamble with what you can afford to lose and change your unit sizes in accordance with your own budget.


Last week, we had a 3-1 record, not including the canceled bout with Petrosyan. It turned out to be a highly profitable night, as we managed to cash in $251.15 from our $500 budgeted bets. The 3-leg parlay paid out $36.81 instead of the expected $88.45 due to the cancellation. All in all, it was a pretty successful night, and I’m looking forward to carrying that momentum into this Saturday

YTD: +$251.15 (3-1)

BET ($500 budget) Amount Payout
Prochazka (+105) $100 $105
Pavlovich (+100) $100 $100
Saint-Denis (-238) $110 $46.22
Sabatini (-120) $120 $100
Costa (+160) $50 $80
Parlay: Pavlovich, Costa, Sabatini $20 $170.67
Unofficial Degen Parlay: Pavlovich + Sabatini + Costa + Godinez + Borshchev + Kang (+6750)

Remember, while these picks are based on thorough research and analysis, MMA is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly and never more than you can afford to lose. Enjoy the fights, and lets do some damage!


I have trained in Mix Martial Arts for about 15 years now (started as a kid) and have had boxing/kickboxing fights. I had to stop fighting due to numerous injuries so I have moved my talents towards the analysis side of things. I am now a UFC betting expert and will send picks on every single UFC card.