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Welcome, UFC Fans and Degens. Hovz here with a breakdown of the upcoming fights this weekend at Las Vegas. There are a lot of exciting matchups so be sure to tune in to see my favorite bets for Saturday night.
Main Event: Brendan Allen (-425) vs Paul Craig (+330)
We have a fun fight on our hands with the main event. Two elite grapplers that bring some heat on the feet. Generally, when we see two grapplers go head to head, the fight stays on the feet (Usman vs. Colby). I expect Brendan Allen to beat Craig in the striking department, and I believe he has the grappling knowledge to stop any silly sub attempts by Craig. However, I can’t place a bet on Allen on this fight, which is why I am leaning towards the over 1.5 (-110) on this fight. I expect both fighters to strike through the first round where the fighters have a combined 9 knockouts between them in 50 fights. This is going to be my heavier bet of the night as I am pretty confident they neutralize each other’s grappling.
Pick: over 1.5 (-110)
Chase Hooper (-205) vs Jordan Leavitt (+170)
We have another exciting matchup on this card, featuring two skilled grapplers facing off. While Chase Hooper initially struggled with his striking upon entering the UFC, he has shown significant improvement. However, I remain unconvinced about his striking abilities. Despite his high volume, he tends to leave himself open. While I wouldn’t classify Leavitt as a phenomenal striker, I believe he holds the advantage over Hooper in this department. Even if the fight goes to the ground, I think Leavitt can overpower and hold his ground against Hooper. Reflecting on the Paddy Pimblett fight, Leavitt was essentially dominating until he made a mistake, which I don’t foresee happening again. In a closely contested bout, I’ll take the underdog at +170.
Pick: Jordan Leavitt (+170)
Jonathan Pearce (-135) vs Joanderson Brito (+110)
I’m fairly surprised the UFC put this matchup together. Both these fighters are on an upwards trajectory and have had piled up a nice win streak. Jonathan Pearce has been pretty solid in the UFC, mixing up his striking with a relentless wrestling game. Brito might be one of the stronger hitters in the division and he has a solid ground game as well. This is a spot where you want to take the underdog in Brito. Pearce has shown a lot of flashes of poor striking defense, even to guys like Darren Elkins who is not known for his striking. I don’t believe that Pearce will be able to control this fight towards his game plan, and if he has not fixed his defensive deficiencies, he is in for a long night. Take the underdog in Brito at +110.
Pick: Joanderson Brito (+110)
FINAL PICKS
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- Allen/Craig o1.5 rounds (-110)
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- Leavitt (+170)
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- Joanderson Brito (+110)
Every week I will give myself a $500 budget on bets and will divide accordingly. Please gamble with what you can afford to lose and change your unit sizes in accordance with your own budget.
RECAP OF LAST WEEK (UFC 295)
Last week was absolutely horrible. We went 1-4 and missed out on all our underdogs. We decided to play with fire and got burned. I thought Prochazka was having a pretty solid fight until he got caught by Pereira’s rock hands. Pavlovich hit Aspinall with a bomb and got answered back with a nuke. Saint-Denis did his job as a favorite, but unfortunately we did not profit all that much. We simply move on and finish the rest of the year strong.
YTD: -$92.63 (4-5)
| BET ($500 budget) | Amount | Payout |
| Allen/Craig o1.5 rounds (-110) | $220 | $200 |
| Leavitt (+170) | $125 | $212.5 |
| Brito (+110) | $125 | $137.5 |
| Parlay: o1.5 rounds + Brito | $20 | $60.18 |
| Parlay: o1.5+Leavitt+Brito | $10 | $98.25 |
Remember, while these picks are based on thorough research and analysis, MMA is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly and never more than you can afford to lose. Enjoy the fights, and lets do some damage!
