Arman Tsarukyan, Youtube
Welcome, UFC Fans and Degens. Hovz here with a breakdown of the upcoming fights this weekend at Austin. There are a lot of exciting matchups so be sure to tune in to see my favorite bets for Saturday night.
Main Event: Arman Tsarukyan (-298) vs Beneil Dariush (+240)
What a fun fight we have here on our hands. Arman Tsarukyan might be one of the next great ones of the lightweight division. However, in order to get there he still has to get past Beneil before he can rematch Islam. I was rather surprised on the odds of this fight. Beneil is no slouch on the ground and I think he matches pretty well against Arman’s striking. I still can’t justify a bet on Beneil as I see Arman completing the takedown and winning with ground and pound. I won’t advise a bet on Arman at -300, but if you can find good odds on Arman by KO/TKO I would sprinkle a bit on that.
P.S. I believe Arman beats Islam in a rematch.
Pick: N/A
Jalin Turner (-185) vs Bobby Green (+155)
Bobby went from facing Dan Hooker to Jalin Turner. I wouldn’t say that this is a huge change in stile, but he’s up against a younger and hungrier fighter. Jalin Turner has the youth, the reach, and the height. All things point to the side of Jalin Turner. Bobby is even coming off a huge KO win and Turner is coming off a high profile loss to Hooker. With all these stats in mind, I would expect Turner to be the underdog in this fight, especially coming in on short notice. That is not the case for Saturday night. Turner is a -185 favorite and I don’t believe that it is justified.
Bobby Green has the boxing to knock out Jalin Turner. Turner may be a great fighter with beautiful striking, but if you pay attention, he plants his feet and throws it down. He may have some decent head movement, but when he is engaging he is planted and open to getting hit. Not to mention he accepted this fight in 2 weeks notice, I easily see Turner gassing out and Bobby winning with his counter boxing.
Bobby Green will win this fight and possibly knock out Turner with his signature 1-2.
Pick: Bobby Green (+155)
Sean Brady (-120) vs Kelvin Gastelum (+105)
Are we finally going to see Kelvin fight at his natural weight class without the worry of his weight cut? It seems like Kelvin is in good spirits and hit a perfect 170 pounds on the scale.
Kelvin was undersized at middleweight and even though he had some success, it did not seem like he would get a chance at that belt again.
Sean Brady got pieced up by Belal Muhammad, and no knock off to Belal, but Kelvin has much cleaner boxing and much heavier hands than Belal. I also don’t see Brady dominating in the wrestling game as Kelvin is finally in a weight class where he won’t get bullied by bigger guys.
I expect Kelvin to piece Brady up and with this fight, potentially by KO.
Pick: Kelvin Gastelum (+105)
Drakkar Klose (-135) vs Joe Solecki (+115)
Klose vs Solecki may not be the most hyped fight of the night, but I believe there is some value on Solecki here.
Solecki definitely has a disadvantage on the feet, but I would not say Klose is anything near an elite striker with finishing abilities. Klose is more of a fighter that will use his striking to setup some of his wrestling game. I believe Solecki has a hude advantage on the ground and I see him putting Klose on his back and possibility submitting him.
Take a bet on Solecki at +115
FINAL PICKS
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- Bobby Green (+155)
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- Kelvin Gastelum (+105)
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- Joe Solecki (+115)
Every week I will give myself a $500 budget on bets and will divide accordingly. Please gamble with what you can afford to lose and change your unit sizes in accordance with your own budget.
RECAP OF LAST WEEK (UFC Vegas 82)
Last week was a solid week if I say so myself. We went 2-1 on our picks but cashed in $262.68 putting us at +170.05 for the year (risking $500 an event). We could have swept our picks as Leavitt was having a solid showing, and even dazed Hooper for a moment. I was super confident on the o1.5 bet as it was my biggest bet of the night. Here is to hoping for many good nights, and an even better one this Saturday.
YTD: +$170.05 (6-6)
My picks for the year may be 6-6 but we are still net positive as I try to find value on the best dogs and bet bigger on spots I like more. Happy to say we recovered well from the atrocity that was UFC 295.
| BET ($500 budget) | Amount | Payout |
| Green (+155) | $100 | $155 |
| Gastelum (+105) | $250 | $262.5 |
| Solecki (+115) | $100 | $115 |
| Parlay: Gastelum + Solecki | $40 | $136.3 |
| Parlay: Green/Gastelum/Solecki | $10 | $102.39 |
Remember, while these picks are based on thorough research and analysis, MMA is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly and never more than you can afford to lose. Enjoy the fights, and lets do some damage!
