Photo Credit: Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Welcome, UFC Fans and Degens. Hovz here with a breakdown of the upcoming fights this weekend in Sao Paulo, Brazil. There are a lot of exciting matchups so be sure to tune in to see my favorite bets for Saturday night.
Main Event: Jailton Almeida (-500) vs Derrick Lewis (+380)
The main event is an exciting one, with Almeida stepping up to fight the veteran “My balls was hot” Derrick Lewis. I won’t be placing a bet on this fight, as Almeida can shut down Lewis with his grappling, and Lewis can knock his lights out at any time. If Lewis’s odds can be pushed up to +500 before the fight starts, I would consider taking a stab.
Pick: Pass
Co-Main Event: Gabriel Bonfim (-625) vs Nicolas Dalby (+455)
There is a lot of hype surrounding Bonfim, and it is justified. However, he is up against a veteran in Dalby, who has only three losses in the UFC and is 4-1 in his last five fights. I don’t believe Dalby will be able to hand Bonfim his first loss, but he has shown to be durable and has yet to be finished in his career. The value in this fight lies in the over 1.5 (-110), and that’s where I will comfortably place my money.
Pick: Bet on the Over 1.5 (-110)
Rodrigo Nascimento (-205) vs Don’Tale Mayes (+170)
This is a rematch from their last fight in 2020, in which Rodrigo got the win by submission. I believe he will secure the victory again. They are fairly evenly matched in the striking department, with the power favoring Mayes. However, I’ve noticed improvements in Nascimento’s striking game. Beyond striking, there is a clear path to victory for Nascimento on the ground. Don’t be surprised if he takes Mayes down and wins by submission once more.
Pick: Nascimento (-205)
Caio Borralho (-290) vs Abus Magomedov (+240)
I’m still not sold on the Borralho hype. He has had solid showings and has proven that his ground game is something every opponent has to prepare for, but his striking is still too raw. Abus possesses the striking skills to knock the lights out of Borralho, and I believe this is a solid opportunity for him to bounce back after losing to the current middleweight champ, Sean Strickland. Keep the bet amount limited, as there is always the concern of Abus gassing out and potentially giving the fight away to Borralho in the second and third rounds.
Pick: Magomedov (+240)
Rodolfo Vieira (-110) vs Armen Petrosyan (-110)
Here we go, another classical Grappler vs Striker matchup. There is a clear path to victory for both of these fighters. Vieira wants to keep this fight on the ground, while Petrosyan wants to keep this fight on the feet. Petrosyan definitely has had issues with TDD in the past, but he has done a solid job in getting up and staying active after the takedowns have been completed. Vieira has not fought a striker of the caliber that Petrosyan has, and if Petrosyan can keep this on the feet long enough, he will control this fight with his range and win this fight.
Pick: Petrosyan (-110)
Angela Hill (+124) vs Denise Gomes (-148)
This is an interesting battle. Gomes is coming off two knockout wins and has gained a lot of hype. Angela Hill, on the other hand, is coming off one of her biggest losses, where she absorbed a lot of punishment against Mackenzie Dern. While Hill may not be the best in the division or the flashiest, she knows how to control her range and incorporate her grappling to win a fight. Angela Hill is a crafty veteran, and I believe she can leverage her wrestling advantage to neutralize Gomes’ power. We’re getting the veteran at favorable odds here due to recency bias on the Gomes side coming off two finishes. This presents a good opportunity with great value on Angela Hill, and I think she can get the job done.
Pick: Angela Hill (+124)
FINAL PICKS
- Bonfim vs Dalby over 1.5 rounds (-110)
- Nascimento (-205)
- Magomedov (+240)
- Petrosyan (-110)
- Angela Hill (+124)
Every week I will give myself a $500 budget on bets and will divide accordingly. Please gamble with what you can afford to lose and change your unit sizes in accordance with your own budget.
YTD: $0 (0-0)
| BET | Amount | Payout |
| Bonfim/Dalby o1.5 Rounds (-110) | $150 | $136.36 |
| Nascimento (-205) | $125 | $60.98 |
| Magomedov (+240) | $45 | $108 |
| Petrosyan (-110) | $110 | $100 |
| Hill (+124) | $50 | $62 |
| Parlay: Nascimento + o1.5 + Petrosyan | $20 | $88.45 |
Remember, while these picks are based on thorough research and analysis, MMA is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly and never more than you can afford to lose. Enjoy the fights, and lets do some damage!
