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Welcome, UFC Fans and Degens. Hovz here with a breakdown of the upcoming fights this weekend at Vegas. We are going to take this fight card light and get ready for a load of picks in next weeks event in UFC 296. There are a lot of exciting matchups so be sure to tune in to see my favorite bets for Saturday night.
Main Event: Song Yadong (-380) vs Chris Gutierrez (+300)
This fight is going to have fireworks. I am going to keep this one short. Both these boys have some firepower. Song has some ridiculous power for the bantamweight division and Chris Gutierrez may have the best low kicks (outside Alex Pereira) in the UFC. If Chris can chop at the leg of Song it is definitely going to limit the power of Song. However, Chris is a bit hesitant to throw his hands and is likely going to be pushed back to the fence, which in turn would neutralize his kicking game. The winner of this fight goes to the guy that can control the center of the Octagon, and as much as I want to toss a sprinkle on Gutierrez, I don’t see him controlling the Octagon against Yadong. With that being said, I can’t lay -380 chalk on Song here. Instead I will sit back and enjoy this fight without a bet.
Pick: N/A
Co-Main: Anthony Smith (+170) vs Khalil Rountree Jr (-205)
Everyone wants to believe that the Anthony Smith who almost beat Jon Jones is still around. Unfortunately, that Anthony Smith is long gone. Don’t get me wrong, I have always respected Anthony Smith and have great praise for him as a fighter, but his championship dreams are long behind him now. Khalil Rountree is the next force to be reckoned with. I don’t think Smith is going to be able to control Rountree on the ground, as Rountree has vastly improved his wrestling game and I don’t see him being content with his back on the ground. Rountree is going to have a solid advantage on the feet and I don’t think Smith is going to be able to handle the force that is Rountree. I am going to keep this short.
Take Khalil Rountree at -205 odds and take it without a shred of doubt.
Pick: Khalil Rountree (-205)
Tim Elliott (-165) vs Su Mudaerji (+140)
On paper, this is a perfect matchup for Tim Elliot. He has the clear advantage on the ground and can easily submit Su. However, Su is going to have a big advantage on the feet and I don’t think Elliot has that raw wrestling pedigree to constantly takedown Su Mudaerji. Though Elliot is landing takedowns at a pretty high clip in each of his fights, he is likely going to have trouble closing the distance against Su’s 6′ inch reach advantage. Su is the younger and hungrier fighter and I believe he wins this fight with his striking. Take a small bet on Su at +140.
Pick: Su Mudaerji (+140)
FINAL PICKS
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- Khalil Rountree Jr (-205)
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- Su Mudaerji (+140)
Every week I will give myself a $500 budget on bets and will divide accordingly. Please gamble with what you can afford to lose and change your unit sizes in accordance with your own budget.
RECAP OF LAST WEEK (UFC Austin)
Last week was a pretty horrible week. Not much to say other than my read was completely off. Can’t win them all. I hope we can bring everyone back with the next two events to close the year off strong. We went 0-3 and lost our whole balance of $500. Let’s turn it around.
YTD: -$329.95 (6-9)
| BET ($500 budget) | Amount | Payout |
| Rountree (-205) | $310 | $151.22 |
| Mudaerji (+140) | $140 | $196 |
| Parlay Rountree + Mudaerji | $50 | $128.54 |
Remember, while these picks are based on thorough research and analysis, MMA is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly and never more than you can afford to lose. Enjoy the fights, and lets do some damage!
