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UFC 297: Betting picks and analysis | Strickland vs Du Plessis – Kanpai Media

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Welcome, UFC Fans and Degens. Hovz here with a breakdown of the upcoming fights this weekend. There are a lot of exciting matchups so be sure to tune in to see my favorite bets for Saturday night. 

Main Event: Sean Strickland (-115) vs Dricus Du Plessis (-105)

Sean Strickland is coming off one of the biggest upsets in UFC history. In hindsight, the Sean matched up pretty well with Adesanya. Adesanya is a counter fighter with not a lot of volume and Sean is very defensive, always working off his jab. I still do think that he matches up well with Dricus, but Dricus is a different beast. Not to say he is better than Adesanya, but Dricus will pressure Sean Strickland without the fear of getting hit. If this was a three round fight, I would have tossed a bet on Dricus, but since this is a five round fight, a small bet on Strickland is warranted. I assume Sean will start fairly slow and jab his way to the championship rounds. Strickland should takeover in the last two rounds and secure the fight near the end. I may consider a round 4/5 tko/ko prop bet as well. 

Pick: Strickland (-115)

Chris Curtis (-185) vs Marc-Andre Barriault (+155)

Chris Curtis might have everything going for him in this fight. I don’t want to overlook Marc-Andre here but Curtis is too durable and composed for Marc-Andre to control this fight. Curtis has only fought high level competition and even though he lost those fights, the experience he gained was not lost. Curtis is the bet here. 

Pick: Curtis (-185)

Arnold Allen (+155) vs Movsar Evloev (-185)

I understand there is a lot of hype on Evloev, but I don’t see him having that killer mentality in him. Not to say that he may not be a future champ, but this is not an easy fight for him. He is great all around, but I don’t see the pop on his punches like Allen does. If Allen can keep this fight standing, I am confident he wins this fight. At underdog odds, I will take Allen all day. 

Pick: Allen (+185)

Brad Katona (-225) vs Garrett Armfield (+185)

I am going to keep this one short. Giving Katona -225 odds here is just plain dumb. I understand he has the experience advantage and maybe the ground advantage but Armfield showed solid takedown defense. Armfield has the reach advantage in this fight, and he has the advantage in the striking department. I believe this fight is going to stay on the feat and Armfield should win this fight through the shear damage he will put out on Katona. Katona is easily hittable and I don’t see him winning this fight. Take the odds on Armfield at +185 and be confident. 

Pick: Armfield (+185)

Yohan Lainesse (-150) vs Sam Patterson (+125)

I understand Sam Patterson disappointed in his last fight as the heavy favorite but getting him at this price seems like a good spot. I don’t see Yohan as an elite striker, and I would say he has barely edged out his only win in the UFC. He is a very sloppy striker against a fighter who can counter strike effectively. Buying Sam Patterson here after a KO loss makes sense. 

Pick: Patterson (+125)

Malcom Gordon (-205) vs Jimmy Flick (+170)

You have to be a mad man to take Gordon at these odds. I understand Flick has not given us anything to be proud of, but I believe he matches up pretty well against Gordon. Gordon is not the best striker and I don’t think he has one shot power to turn Flick’s light off. He also has horrendous takedown defense. Flick may not be the greatest wrestler but he has a solid top game and I think he can win this fight anywhere it goes. The odds on Flick here are a steal. The pick is Jimmy Flick.  

Pick: Flick (+170)


    • Sean Strickland (-115)
    • Chris Curtis (-185)
    • Arnold Allen (+155)
    • Garrett Armfield (+185)
    • Sam Patterson (+125)
    • Jimmy Flick (+170)

Every week I will give myself a $500 budget on bets and will divide accordingly. Please gamble with what you can afford to lose and change your unit sizes in accordance with your own budget. 

YTD: $0 (0-0) 

BET Amount Payout
Strickland (-115) $100 $86.96
Curtis (-185) $75 $40.54
Allen (+155) $50 $77.5
Armfield (+185) $100 $185
Patterson (+125) $50 $72.5
Flick (+170) $100 $170

Parlay: Flick + Armfield + Curtis $25 wins $334.66

Remember, while these picks are based on thorough research and analysis, MMA is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly and never more than you can afford to lose. Enjoy the fights, and lets do some damage!


I have trained in Mix Martial Arts for about 15 years now (started as a kid) and have had boxing/kickboxing fights. I had to stop fighting due to numerous injuries so I have moved my talents towards the analysis side of things. I am now a UFC betting expert and will send picks on every single UFC card.