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UFC Vegas 86: Betting picks and analysis | Hermanson vs Pyfer – Kanpai Media

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Welcome, UFC Fans and Degens. Hovz here with a breakdown of the upcoming fights this weekend. There are a lot of exciting matchups so be sure to tune in to see my favorite bets for Saturday night. 

Main Event: Jack Hermansson (+195) vs Joe Pyfer (-240)

Choo Choo, come take a stop at the Joe Pyfer hype train. He is coming off two knockout wins in the UFC and one knockout win from Dana White’s Contender series. Seems like “Be like Joe Pyfer” is really sticking. Pyfer has had some fairly easy matchups in his first two UFC fights, and to be real, Hermansson is one of the “easier” fights in the top 15. With that being said, I would never take the unproven Pyfer at these odds. He’s up against a tough fighter, who will not go out easily. I am honestly not bought on the Pyfer hype train, but these are two fighters with opposite trajectories. I am inclined to take a sprinkle on Hermansson here, based on his experience, and the fact that it’s a 5 round fight. Take it easy, but take Hermansson. 

Pick: Hermansson (+195)

Dan Ige (-185) vs Andre Fili (+155)

I honestly think this fight might be a tad bit closer than the odds portray, but I am still going to be riding with Dan Ige. I think Andre Fili has very solid striking, his wrestling is approving, and he is coming off a solid knockout win. However, I think Ige outboxes Fili here, especially if he rips the body. Although we saw Ige get controlled by Bryce Mitchell in his last fight, I don’t think Fili will be able to do that. The bet is on Dan Ige. 

Pick: Dan Ige (-185)

Brad Tavares (+200) vs Gregory Rodrigues (-245)

Brad Tavares just can’t seem to find a solid streak in the UFC. He is a fighter that will come out there and fight, but his time is unfortunately coming to an end. He has a tough matchup here in Robocop, who is going to pressure him and put him on his back foot. Tavares may have a slight advantage on the feet, but if Rodrigues mixes up his striking with his scary ground game, it’s going to be a tough night in the office for Robocop. Rodrigues should get a finish in this fight and he is the side I’m backing. 

Pick: Gregory Rodrigues (-245)

Michael Johnson (-140) vs Darrius Flowers (+120)

Darrius Flowers was given a horrible matchup for his debut in the UFC. Jake Mathews is a top tier fighter and for a couple minutes there, he actually looked like he can match up. However, he came short, and it looked like he gassed against Mathews. I was not particularly impressed with his striking, his movement, nor his striking defense. Michael Johnson has hands, and if you come rushing in against him with your head held high you are going to go to sleep. This is a massive stepdown in competition for Michael Johnson based on his past experience, and I believe he takes Flowers out. The bet is on the man who “wobbled” Khabib. Take Michael Johnson. 

Pick: Michael Johnson (-140)

Rodolfo Vieira  (-115) vs Armen Petrosyan (-105)

Rodolfo Vieira has one game plan here and that is to take Armen down. So far, Armen has not had the greatest takedown defense, but it has not been horrible either. With the height difference, I see Armen keeping his distance and piecing up Vieira through three rounds. He may not have that massive one punch knockout power, but he has beautiful and clean striking. It also helps that he has been training in Dagestan to improve his wrestling. If Vieira can hold Armen down he may be able to submit him and finish this fight. But, I don’t see Armen sitting on his back and not getting up like he has done in the past. Vieira will likely gas by the third round, and that is where I see Armen finishing him, if he does. Take Armen here, but don’t go too heavy.   

Pick: Armen Petrosyan (-105)

Undercard Picks

Max Griffin (+130)

Hyder Amil (-200)


    • Jack Hermansson (+195)
    • Dan Ige (-185)
    • Gregory Rodrigues (-245)
    • Michael Johnson (-140)
    • Armen Petrosyan (-105)
    • Max Griffin (+130)
    • Hyder Amil (-200)

Every week I will give myself a $500 budget on bets and will divide accordingly. Please gamble with what you can afford to lose and change your unit sizes in accordance with your own budget. 

Last article, we had a pretty good week in UFC 297. Though I really thought Strickland had won that fight, we would have had an amazing week. We went 4-2 and had a profit of $318.04. 

YTD: +$318.04 (4-2)

BET ($500 budget) Amount Payout
Hermansson (+195) $50 $97.5
Ige (-185) $100 $54.05
Parlay: Rodrigues + Amil           $50 $55.61       
Michael Johnson (-140)        $140      $100           
Petrosyan (-105) $75 $71.43
Max Griffin (+130) $50 $65
Parlay: Johnson + Ige + Griffin $35 $253.71


Remember, while these picks are based on thorough research and analysis, MMA is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly and never more than you can afford to lose. Enjoy the fights, and lets do some damage!


I have trained in Mix Martial Arts for about 15 years now (started as a kid) and have had boxing/kickboxing fights. I had to stop fighting due to numerous injuries so I have moved my talents towards the analysis side of things. I am now a UFC betting expert and will send picks on every single UFC card.