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Welcome, UFC Fans and Degens. Hovz here with a breakdown of the upcoming fights this weekend. There are a lot of exciting matchups so be sure to tune in to see my favorite bets for Saturday night. We had an amazing week last week, can we run it back?
Main Event: Volkanovski (-125) vs Topuria (+105)
Unfortunate for Topuria, his first title shot is against the greatest featherweight in UFC history (arguably). Alex has accomplished everything he needed to accomplish in this division, and unfortunate for him he could not do the same in the lightweight division. This is a very close matchup and it is not easy picking a side. However, I am going to have to side with the younger, hungrier, and heavy hitting side in Topuria. Topuria has the advantage in the striking department for this fight and I am fairly confident he will keep this standing. I don’t believe Alex will bring a wrestling heavy approach to this fight. We are not going big, but we are going to take Topuria at dog money, because I assume this will be the last time we ever get this type of price for Topuria.
Pick: Topuria (+105)
Co Main: Whittaker (-240) vs Paulo Costa (+195)
I don’t usually like picking against the more experienced, the more technical, and the smarter fighter, but these odds warrant a bet on Costa. Costa might not be the prettiest striker, but he has the size and strength advantage to pressure Whittaker. Whittaker is a karate style fighter who needs range to piece his opponents up, and Costa is not going to give him that room. I also don’t believe that Whittaker has that one strike knockout power that Costa has in his arsenal. Couple that with Costa being out for a couple years now, I would have to think that he has made some massive improvements. (Hopefully not drinking wine before his fight either). Take Costa here at these odds.
Pick: Paulo Costa (+195)
Hernandez (-245) vs Kopylov (+200)
This line just does not make sense to me. I get it, Hernandez is on a solid streak and has had some crazy victories, especially when he submitted Vieira. However, I don’t believe that he is an elite level fighter (if he proves me wrong, my hat off to him). He won’t be able to control Kopylov on the ground nor am I confident on Hernandez taking Kopylov down, who has a 92% takedown defense in the UFC. I am feeling very comfortable sending in a ticket on Kopylov at +200 and watching him piece Hernandez on the feet.
Pick: Kopylov (+200)
Lemos (-135) vs Dern (+115)
All eyes are on Dern in this fight. She came into the UFC with insane hype, and I think that hype is finally coming back down to Earth. No one can argue that she is likely the best grappler in Woman’s MMA, but this is unfortunately not a grappling match. She has a huge disadvantage on the feet and she is very hittable. She also does not have the greatest wrestling entries and has trouble taking her opponents down. This is Lemos’ fight to lose. If she can hold her range and prevent Dern from entering, she wins this fight 10/10 times. The only reason I am not making this a massive bet is because she could not stop the takedowns coming Zhang in her last fight. Though, I won’t let that last fight weigh my judgement. I am going to take the cleaner and better striker in this matchup and hope she does not get taken down. Give me Lemos.
Pick: Lemos (-135)
Rogerio De Lima (-205) vs Tafa (+170)
I had a pretty solid read on De Lima beating Tafa, but now he is fighting another Tafa, his brother. Although I don’t think that that changes much in terms of strategy for De Lima, but the odds have definitely lessened in our favor. I think De Lima is always disrespected and does not get the credit he deserves. I see him easily closing the distance and getting this fight to the ground, but I am going to keep my bet limited since we don’t know what kind of wild card Junior Tafa can be.
Pick: Rogerio De Lima (-205)
FINAL PICKS
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- Topuria (+105)
- Costa (+195)
- Kopylov (+200)
- Lemos (-135)
- Rogerio De Lima (-205)
Every week I will give myself a $500 budget on bets and will divide accordingly. Please gamble with what you can afford to lose and change your unit sizes in accordance with your own budget.
Last week we had a pretty killer week. An almost perfect night outside of Petrosyan. Hoping to run it back. We went 6-1 on our picks and even cashed in some parlays! Total for the night +$550.87
YTD: +$868.91 (10-3)
| BET ($500 budget) | Amount | Payout |
| Topuria (+105) | $100 | $105 |
| Costa (+195) | $100 | $195 |
| Kopylov (+200) | $50 | $100 |
| Lemos (-135) | $100 | $74.07 |
| Rogerio De Lima (-205) | $110 | $53.66 |
| Parlay: Topuria + Costa + Lemos | $20 | $190.54 |
| Parlay: Costa + Lemos + De Lima | $20 | $132.80 |
Remember, while these picks are based on thorough research and analysis, MMA is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly and never more than you can afford to lose. Enjoy the fights, and lets do some damage!
