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UFC 300: Betting picks and analysis | Pereira vs Hill – Kanpai Media

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Welcome, UFC Fans and Degens. Hovz here with a breakdown of the upcoming fights this weekend. There are a lot of exciting matchups so be sure to tune in to see my favorite bets for Saturday night. We had an amazing week last week, can we run it back? 

Main Event: Pereira (-125) vs Hill (+105)

In a close fight like this, some way say just taking the underdog is profitable. I don’t think that’s the case here. Hill is definitely talented, and might be the hardest striker Pereira has faced up until now in his UFC career, but I don’t think Hill is technical enough to break Pereira apart. Hill will always have a chance throughout this fight, but I believe Alex will be able to pick Hill apart and win this fight. Don’t go too big on this, but I am confident enough to place a bet on Pereira. 

Pick: Pereira (-125)

Co Main: Weili (-485) vs Xiaonan (+370)

Weili is the rightful favorite. She is the more well rounded fighter, the more experienced, and the current champ. However, this price is far too high. If Xiaonan can keep this fight standing then they are fairly even, and I’d say Xiaonan is the better striker. The reason i can’t go huge on this is because Xiaonan has not shown the best defensive attributes on the ground and I can see Weili controlling her on the ground fairly easily. I refuse to believe Xianonan has not been working on her grappling/TDD. A small clip on Xiaonan here makes sense. 

Pick: Xiaonan (+370)

Gaethje (-160) vs Holloway (+140)

What an amazing fight. You’re lying if you said you’re not excited for this fight. At first glance, you might say this is an easy fight for Gaethje and it does make sense. Justin has the leg kicks to slow Holloway down, the same way Volk did. He has the power advantage, and Justin’s boxing has been getting significantly better. However, I am on Holloway’s side for this fight. I believe Max can keep the distance in this fight and work off his jab. I can see Holloway just pouring it up on Gaethje and negating too much damage coming back. This time, Max has had more time to prepare for change in weight and he won’t look as bad as he did against Poirier at 155. Take Max “Blessed” Holloway.

Pick: Holloway (-135)

Tsarukyan (-225) vs Oliveira (+185)

Unfortunately for Oliveira, Tsarukyan is the future. Oliveira may be an elite grappler, but I don’t think his submissions are going to be an option here. Tsarukyan is far too talented on the ground to give up a submission. Oliveira’s best chance in this fight is to keep it standing, which is where I believe he has the slight edge. However, Tsarukyan’s striking has only been getting better in each fight. I believe Tsarukyan is going to take Oliveira down and beat him with ground and pound. Take Arman Tsarukyan here. 

Pick: Tsarukyan (-225)

Nickal (-1450) vs Brundage (+850)

Not much to say here at these odds. If you want some sort of action the o1.5 (+260) does not seem terrible. I am going to pass on this fight. 

Pick: Pass

Prochazka (+100) vs Rakic (-120)

There is not much to say about this fight other than that it will be violent. I am going to take Jiri Prochazka at these odds because he is the heavier hitter in this fight and I believe his awkward fighting style is a problem for many people. Tie that with Rakic coming off a crazy injury and a long lay off, I believe this is Prochazka’s fight to take. 

Pick: Prochazka (+100)

Kattar (+145) vs Sterling (-170)

This is a very interesting matchup. One that I had trouble picking a side. Kattar has not faced a wrestling like Aljo before and is definitely going to be a challenging fight for him. However, Sterling is moving up in weight, and taking down heavier, stronger guys is not easy. There is a clear advantage on the feet and it goes to Kattar. He should be able to put up more damage than Sterling and win this fight. Kattar also has stopped 92% of takedowns against him, though I am not weighing my decision just based off that one stat since he has not faced someone as talented as Aljo in wrestling. I do still believe Kattar should be able to keep this fight standing for the most part and win through damage.  

Pick: Kattar

Rest of the prelims:

Diego Lopes (-135)

Jalin Turner (-210)

Marina Rodriguez (+110)

Bobby Green (-180)

Cody Garbrandt +250)


    • Pereira (-125)
    • Xiaonan (+370)
    • Holloway (+140)
    • Tsarukyan (-225)
    • Prochazka (+100)
    • Kattar (+145)
    • Lopes (-135)
    • Turner (-210)
    • Rodriguez (+110)
    • Green (-180)
    • Garbrandt (+250)

Every week I will give myself a $500 budget on bets and will divide accordingly. Please gamble with what you can afford to lose and change your unit sizes in accordance with your own budget. For this week, I am going to bump my budget to $2000 since it is UFC 300.

Last article we had a really good week and cashed out for some solid profit and even cashed in our parlay. We went 4-2 on our picks. Total for the night +$467.42

YTD: +$1379.06 (17-7)

BET ($2000 budget) Amount Payout
Pereira (-125)                                  $250 $200
Xiaonan (+370) $50 $185
Holloway (+140)    $150 $210    
Tsarukyan (-225)                        $300 $133.33       
Prochazka (+100) $200 $200
Kattar (+145) $100 $145
Lopes (-135)  $135 $100
Turner (-210)                                 $100  $47.62  
Rodriguez (+110) $75 $82.5
Green (-180) $360 $200
Garbrandt (+250) $100 $250

Parlay: Green + Lopes $100 to win  $170.78

Parlay: Pereira + Tsarukyan + Turner $30 to win $85.14

Parlay: Holloway + Prochazka + Green + Garbrandt $50 to win $754

Remember, while these picks are based on thorough research and analysis, MMA is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly and never more than you can afford to lose. Enjoy the fights, and lets do some damage!


I have trained in Mix Martial Arts for about 15 years now (started as a kid) and have had boxing/kickboxing fights. I had to stop fighting due to numerous injuries so I have moved my talents towards the analysis side of things. I am now a UFC betting expert and will send picks on every single UFC card.